An analysis of the topic of being lucky enough
This is consistent with real-world data, although there is some suggestion that in the real world, wealth success is even more unevenly distributed, with just eight men owning the same wealth as the poorest half of the world.
In contrast, in the universe simulated at the bottom of the figure, the overall level of success of the society was low, with an average of only 18 individuals able to increase their initial level of success.
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The views expressed are those of the author s and are not necessarily those of Scientific American. The importance of the hidden dimension of luck raises an intriguing question: Are the most successful people mostly just the luckiest people in our society? This assumption doesn't only underlie success magazines, but also how we distribute resources in society, from work opportunities to fame to government grants to public policy decisions. But is this assumption correct? Consider a study conducted by Jean-Michel Fortin and David Currie, who looked at whether larger grants lead to larger discoveries. In the final outcome of the year simulation, while talent was normally distributed, success was not. As the authors note, "even a great talent becomes useless against the fury of misfortune. This suggests that if a funding agency or government has more money available to distribute, they'd be wise to use that extra money to distribute money to everyone, rather than to only a select few. Consider some recent findings: About half of the differences in income across people worldwide is explained by their country of residence and by the income distribution within that country, Scientific impact is randomly distributed , with high productivity alone having a limited effect on the likelihood of high-impact work in a scientific career, The chance of becoming a CEO is influenced by your name or month of birth , The number of CEOs born in June and July is much smaller than the number of CEOs born in other months, Those with last names earlier in the alphabet are more likely to receive tenure at top departments, The display of middle initials increases positive evaluations of people's intellectual capacities and achievements, People with easy to pronounce names are judged more positively than those with difficult-to-pronounce names, Females with masculine sounding names are more successful in legal careers. What happens once they introduced various funding opportunities into the simulation?
They argue that at the macro-level of analysis, any policy that can influence these factors will result in greater collective progress and innovation for society not to mention immense self-actualization of any particular individual.
What did they find? In general, mediocre-but-lucky people were much more successful than more-talented-but-unlucky individuals.
The authors suggest that funding strategies that focus more on targeting diversity than "excellence" are likely to be more productive to society. The importance of the hidden dimension of luck raises an intriguing question: Are the most successful people mostly just the luckiest people in our society?
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